"Volcanoes and hot air": almost a shame to use it - like shooting ducks in a barrel. I'm sure assorted tabloids have this as a headline today. Two big news stories yesterday; the first, the volcano eruption and it's consequences for air travel throughout Northern Europe. No flights: broad swathe taking in most of Northern Europe. Very interesting, disastrous for air lines. The second was the first ever pre-election debate between the three major party political leaders: Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrats, Gordon Brown, Labour and David Cameron, Conservatives.  This was more interesting than I thought it would be and the consequences of the election are potentially more disastrous than the volcano.

First: the debates. Clegg and Cameron were very smooth, very polished. Brown was not. I like Brown. I prefer Clegg's policies, but I find Brown more likable than either of the other two. I prefer my politicians a little less smooth. I thought Brown looked tired, a bit rumpled. I think he's more intelligent, more honest, more experienced, and less willing to do anything in search of votes than the other two. I also think he's entirely too New Labour for my liking - sell off the family silver (at this point, Dover Docks) and believe in the markets.

Brown, according to the papers and tv, came third in those who thought he 'won'. Clegg, everyone agrees, won - more of the focus group thought his performance was best than the other two combined. I'd agree with that. He came across the best of the three. But then he had the easiest job of it. People knew very little about him, he's not going to be the new Prime Minister, and he could afford to be very honest about unpleasant matters like raising taxes.

I thought Cameron was a slimy, opportunistic git, a Toff wide-boy - but that's what I thought before the debates. He came across as the least knowledgeable of the three - and that, I think, is less biased than the git ascription. He defended the trident nuclear missile  program badly, suggesting we need it to nuke China. (That was the only real gaff made by any of the three.) Clegg attacked the program, not very well.

Brown could have defended his increased payroll tax better: largely by saying taxes have to go up, and this at least taxes those with jobs, unlike increases in VAT. Clegg came out best on what would actually be taxed and where the money would go; but then he could afford to. Nobody expects him to be in a position to actually cause them a bit of suffering.

Cameron didn't perform as well as expected - expectations were very high. Brown performed better than expected - expectations were very low. Clegg was surprising - nobody knew what to expect. (Vince Cable is the LibDem everybody loves. If he were leader, the LibDems might actually make a break through.)

I don't think Brown is actually a very good politician. He's not good at showing he cares, that emotional reaction that says I share your pain. But I think he actually does care. The one emotional moment he offered, when he talked about writing letters to the families of dead military personnel, appeared genuine. (A couple of months ago, he was criticized for mis-spelling a soldier's name in his handwritten letter to the young man's parents. Some papers pointed out that this was a Prime Minister, writing the letters himself in the middle of the night: cut the man some slack. He could have turned the job over to a typist.)

At best, we'll get a hung parliament, with no party having a majority. That's probably my preference. At worst, Cameron will be elected with a good enough majority to do what he wants. That, I think, will be a disaster and Brown can say I told you so when the double dip recession hits.

The other thing, the volcano. Strangely enough, it excited everyone, including the news teams. It was novel. I had no idea volcanoes were such a threat to aviation. There were volcano specialists on the tellie: trying not to look quite as delighted as they were. There were meteorologists, looking depressed. There were Air Traffic Control people, looking even more depressed, trying to project optimism.

One person interviewed in Manchester air port said, "Iceland... first they stole our money, now they ruin our holidays."

The BBC announcer commented, "I don't think we can actually blame the banks for this."

(Ha! I can blame a bank for anything these days.}

There's been a lump of transportation related problems lately. My husband caught the train to catch a plane to the Cooks a couple of weeks ago. He phoned from the train: problems on the line, and he was afraid he'd miss his flight. He called Air New Zealand and they said they'd put a note by his name; if he got there with an hour before the flight, he could make it. He did make it.

I went to a conference in York. I planned on going by train, then a rail strike was announced. I booked a bus - long journey, real hassle to use the website. Then a judge ruled the strike was illegal; no proper ballot. So I paid a cancellation fee and got a train ticket. On the way back from York, It was standing room from York to London. Including 45 minutes when the train stood as well; work on the line.

Now the Volcano.

Earth appears to be irritated as well as the God of Transport. We've had tsunamis, several earthquakes, mud slides, floods. Thousands dead in widely separated parts of the world - South America and China.

Gloom and doom, doom and gloom: if the trend continues, Cameron will get elected with a clear majority. But the sunsets are supposed to be remarkably beautiful in the Southeast of England over the next week or so.